The political landscape in Victoria is undergoing a dramatic shift, with the Labor government facing an uncertain future. The latest Resolve Political Monitor survey reveals a pronounced mood for political change, with only a quarter of voters supporting Labor's re-election and nearly half questioning the two-party system. This shift is largely attributed to the rise of One Nation, an anti-establishment movement led by Pauline Hanson, which is gaining traction at the expense of both major parties.
The survey's findings are striking, with One Nation's primary support rising to 24%, a 3-point increase since the last poll. Labor's support has dropped to 26%, while the Coalition is also on 26%, down 3 points. This trend is further emphasized by the individual survey results, which show a surge in One Nation's support from 20% to 28% between the two surveys.
The implications of these numbers are significant. If replicated at the November election, Victoria could face a hung parliament, with mixed outcomes for Premier Jacinta Allan. While she has avoided a polling disaster, Labor's electoral outlook remains dire. The survey also highlights a strong anti-government sentiment among One Nation voters, with only 4% agreeing that Labor deserves another term.
The survey's findings have sparked speculation about the future of Labor's leadership, with Allan's supporters and detractors offering differing perspectives. Her supporters argue that the recent budget measures have improved Labor's standing, while detractors see it as evidence of a destabilization campaign. The survey also reveals a clear mood for a change in government, with 46% of respondents agreeing that the Liberal and National coalition is capable of governing.
The rise of One Nation and the potential for a state coalition between the Liberals, Nationals, and One Nation are concerning for Allan. She believes that One Nation poses a risk to working people and families, and her government is taking steps to address these concerns. However, the survey's findings suggest that the two-party system is under threat, with only 13% disagreeing with the proposition.
As Victoria heads towards a volatile and unpredictable state election, the survey's results provide a snapshot of the current political climate. The expanded coverage of state politics by The Age will provide further insights into the issues that matter most to Victorian voters, with the Resolve Political Monitor doubling its monthly survey sample.
In conclusion, the political landscape in Victoria is in flux, with the Labor government facing an uncertain future. The rise of One Nation and the potential for a hung parliament are significant developments that will shape the state's political trajectory. The survey's findings highlight the need for a more nuanced understanding of the issues that matter most to Victorian voters, and the expanded coverage by The Age will provide valuable insights into this complex political environment.
