Midseason Review: Buy Owen Caissie, Sell Otto Lopez, Hold A.J. Ewing
With the All-Star break upon us, it's time to reflect on the first half of the season and adjust our fantasy baseball strategies accordingly. This week's analysis focuses on players who have been recommended for purchase or sale, and whether those labels still hold up.
The key metric used for evaluation is wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus), which provides a comprehensive view of a hitter's performance, adjusting for park effects and league context. However, it's important to note that wRC+ has limitations, particularly regarding playing time and counting stats, especially for players who rely on steals.
Let's dive into the buy and sell recommendations, along with my personal commentary and analysis.
Buy Recommendations
- Caleb Durbin: Despite not possessing significant power, Durbin excels at making contact and is on pace for 20 home runs and 20 steals. His low BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) suggests that his average will rise, making him a valuable asset.
- Jac Caglianone: Caglianone's power potential is evident in his swing-and-miss tendencies and home run production. While he needs to lift the ball more, he has the makings of a 40-home run hitter, making him a dynasty league target.
- Ronald Acuña: Although currently injured, Acuña's talent is undeniable. When healthy, he has the potential to be a top-tier hitter, and his power and speed make him a must-have in fantasy baseball.
- Ivan Herrera: Despite a recent slump, Herrera remains a top catcher with a strong bat. His bat speed and power make him a valuable asset, and he's worth holding onto, especially if he can recover his form.
- Lawrence Butler: Butler's performance has been underwhelming, but he's still a starting option. His potential for improvement makes him a hold, especially if he can find his rhythm.
- Fernando Tatis: Tatis' power potential is evident in his ability to hit home runs. While his current production is not guaranteed, his talent and potential make him a buy, especially if his manager is growing frustrated with his performance.
- Willson Contreras: Contreras' new approach, focusing on pulling the ball, has yielded impressive results. His power and bat control make him a strong buy, and he's likely to maintain his current level of success.
- Carson Benge: Benge's full-season slash line is respectable, and Statcast provides some upside. His steals ability adds to his value, making him a hold or a potential buy depending on league depth.
- Dansby Swanson: Swanson's counting stats make him a hold, despite his wRC+ underselling his overall contribution. His ability to rack up hits and walks is valuable in fantasy baseball.
- Dylan Crews: Crews' underperformance in the third season is concerning. His lack of improvement suggests that he may not be a reliable fantasy option, making him a sell.
- Esmerlyn Valdez: Valdez's recent success is well-deserved, and his ability to perform despite the Pirates' decision to send him back to the minors is impressive. He's a buy if he remains available in your league.
- Zach Neto: Neto's power potential is evident in his home run production. His ability to make contact and hit for power makes him a hold or a potential buy, especially if he continues to perform.
- Bryce Eldridge: Eldridge's power and contact skills make him a hold or a potential buy. His ability to make consistent contact and hit for power is valuable in fantasy baseball.
- Tyler Stephenson: Stephenson's power and contact skills make him a strong buy. His ability to hit for power and make consistent contact is a valuable combination.
- JJ Wetherholt: Wetherholt's power and contact skills make him a hold or a potential buy. His ability to make consistent contact and hit for power is valuable in fantasy baseball.
- Brandon Nimmo: Nimmo's power and contact skills make him a hold or a potential buy. His ability to make consistent contact and hit for power is valuable in fantasy baseball.
- Zack Gelof: Gelof's power and contact skills make him a hold or a potential buy. His ability to make consistent contact and hit for power is valuable in fantasy baseball.
- Curtis Mead: Mead's power potential is evident in his ability to hit for power. While his raw power may not sustain his current level of production, his breakout potential makes him a hold or a potential buy.
- Miguel Vargas: Vargas's power and contact skills make him a hold or a potential buy. His ability to make consistent contact and hit for power is valuable in fantasy baseball.
Sell Recommendations
- Brooks Lee: Lee's performance has been stable, but his slight decline in wRC+ makes him a sell.
- Nolan Arenado: Arenado's performance has been inconsistent, and his decline in wRC+ makes him a sell.
- Xavier Edwards: Edwards' performance has been underwhelming, and his decline in wRC+ makes him a sell.
- Ian Happ: Happ's power-for-contact trade-off has led to a slump. His strikeout rate and exit velocity suggest that he may not sustain his current level of success, making him a hold or a potential sell.
- Andy Pages: Pages' production dropped after being recommended for sale, but he remains a valuable second baseman. His steals ability adds to his value, making him a buy if available.
- Troy Johnston: Johnston's performance has been stable, but his slight decline in wRC+ makes him a sell.
- Brandon Marsh: Marsh's performance has been underwhelming, and his decline in wRC+ makes him a sell.
- Xander Bogaerts: Bogaerts' performance has been inconsistent, and his decline in wRC+ makes him a sell.
- Randy Arozarena: Arozarena's performance has been stable, but his slight decline in wRC+ makes him a sell.
- Josh Jung: Jung's performance has been stable, but his slight decline in wRC+ makes him a sell.
- Liam Hicks: Hicks' power and contact skills make him a hold or a potential buy. His ability to make consistent contact and hit for power is valuable in fantasy baseball.
- Jazz Chisholm: Chisholm's performance has been streaky, and his decline in wRC+ makes him a sell.
- Ernie Clement: Clement's performance has been stable, but his slight decline in wRC+ makes him a sell.
- Otto Lopez: Lopez's performance has been impressive, but his high strikeout rate and low barrel rate make him a sell.
- Owen Caissie: Caissie's performance has been stellar, and his power and contact skills make him a buy.
- A.J. Ewing: Ewing's performance has been impressive, and his power and contact skills make him a hold.
- TJ Rumfield: Rumfield's performance has been stable, but his slight decline in wRC+ makes him a sell.
- CJ Abrams: Abrams' performance has been similar to Chisholm's, and his decline in wRC+ makes him a sell.
In conclusion, this midseason review highlights the importance of evaluating players based on their performance and potential. By making informed decisions, fantasy baseball managers can optimize their rosters and maximize their chances of success in the second half of the season.
